[00:00.00 → 00:01.36] 每日复盘,
[00:01.44 → 00:02.32] 粉丝投稿,
[00:02.36 → 00:03.54] 中位拿到AK,
[00:03.72 → 00:04.54] 顶对顶7,
[00:04.80 → 00:06.02] 河牌面对庄位,
[00:06.18 → 00:06.86] 超持握印,
[00:07.02 → 00:07.50] 能否弃牌。
[00:07.62 → 00:08.50] 我们来看这数牌,
[00:08.54 → 00:09.40] 粉丝中位,
[00:09.56 → 00:10.30] AK杂色,
[00:10.46 → 00:11.02] 前位弃牌,
[00:11.10 → 00:11.98] 粉丝选择开池,
[00:12.12 → 00:13.20] 这个开池完全标准,
[00:13.34 → 00:13.92] 庄位跟注,
[00:14.12 → 00:15.38] 其他人弃牌。
[00:16.95 → 00:17.47] 翻牌,
[00:17.69 → 00:18.29] K94,
[00:18.45 → 00:19.25] 粉丝集中,
[00:19.35 → 00:20.17] 顶对顶7,
[00:20.31 → 00:21.15] 这个牌可以下注,
[00:21.33 → 00:23.97] 因为它能向K圈,K勾,9X,
[00:24.09 → 00:24.67] 红桃键牌,
[00:25.33 → 00:25.89] 还有勾圈,
[00:25.95 → 00:26.53] 勾10,
[00:26.65 → 00:27.43] 这些牌数下值。
[00:27.43 → 00:29.19] 粉丝下注三分之一底池,
[00:29.33 → 00:30.29] 庄位跟注,
[00:30.45 → 00:31.05] 庄位跟注,
[00:31.11 → 00:33.89] 它的范围里面就有大量的KX,9X,
[00:33.99 → 00:34.55] 红桃键牌,
[00:34.79 → 00:35.99] 还有一些顺子键牌,
[00:36.05 → 00:37.37] 粉丝现在大概就拧先,
[00:37.59 → 00:39.49] 但是对手已经不完全是空气。
[00:39.51 → 00:40.65] 转牌,
[00:40.77 → 00:41.31] 黑头二,
[00:41.35 → 00:43.09] 这张牌看起来是白牌,
[00:43.17 → 00:43.75] 红桃没到,
[00:43.81 → 00:45.01] 顺子也没有明显完成,
[00:45.19 → 00:47.31] 粉丝继续下注四分之三底池,
[00:47.45 → 00:48.25] 这一项可以理解,
[00:48.39 → 00:50.99] 它还可以向更差的K和红桃键
[00:50.99 → 00:51.87] 牌收下值。
[00:51.87 → 00:53.81] 但这一项也非常的有争议,
[00:53.99 → 00:55.85] 因为庄位翻牌已经跟了一项,
[00:55.91 → 00:56.75] 那你继续打大,
[00:56.93 → 00:58.47] 几折就会被你主动做起来,
[00:58.57 → 00:59.27] 庄位再次跟注,
[00:59.29 → 01:01.61] 到这里庄位的范围就明显收缩变强。
[01:01.79 → 01:03.57] 它可能有的牌,K圈,K勾,
[01:03.73 → 01:05.29] 也可能是强红桃键牌,
[01:05.41 → 01:07.45] 也可能是慢打的99,44,K9,
[01:07.53 → 01:08.59] 这种强牌,河牌,
[01:08.73 → 01:09.27] 红桃7,
[01:09.41 → 01:09.99] 最麻烦的牌,
[01:10.09 → 01:10.45] 同花到了,
[01:10.53 → 01:11.27] 粉丝选择过牌,
[01:11.39 → 01:12.55] 这个过牌很合理。
[01:12.55 → 01:15.07] 因为现在AK已经很难再打三条鞋
[01:15.07 → 01:15.67] 纯价值,
[01:15.73 → 01:16.31] 结果庄位1.
[01:16.39 → 01:17.45] 5倍超持全下,
[01:17.55 → 01:19.33] 这里AK已经不再是价值牌,
[01:19.49 → 01:20.47] 而是一个抓炸牌,
[01:20.55 → 01:21.75] 它现在打不过同花,
[01:21.87 → 01:22.79] 两队按三条,
[01:22.99 → 01:25.05] 只能赢对手错过的一些勾圈,
[01:25.13 → 01:25.69] 勾10,
[01:25.83 → 01:26.91] 18这种炸物牌。
[01:27.01 → 01:28.27] 那粉丝继续提问,
[01:28.33 → 01:29.93] 需要多少胜率才能够扩,
[01:29.99 → 01:31.89] 其实这里是有一个简单的公式的,
[01:31.89 → 01:34.43] 就是你跟注的积分除以你跟
[01:34.43 → 01:35.51] 住后的底池,
[01:35.67 → 01:36.15] 举个例子。
[01:36.15 → 01:37.19] 现在池里是100,
[01:37.29 → 01:38.15] 对手下注150,
[01:38.31 → 01:39.35] 你要扩150,
[01:39.51 → 01:40.51] 那最终底池就是400,
[01:40.69 → 01:41.45] 150除以400,
[01:41.61 → 01:43.11] 胜率约等于37%,
[01:43.11 → 01:44.65] 也就是说对手这次全下,
[01:44.81 → 01:46.37] 至少要接近四成炸火,
[01:46.43 → 01:48.13] 你在AK扩住才会不亏。
[01:48.23 → 01:50.47] 但粉丝这手AK杂色没有红桃,
[01:50.61 → 01:51.29] 这里就很关键,
[01:51.33 → 01:53.73] 因为他没有阻挡对手的任何的红桃同花,
[01:53.77 → 01:55.51] 所以不是一个很好的抓炸组合。
[01:55.61 → 01:57.15] 最后粉丝选择扩住,
[01:57.31 → 01:58.91] 庄位酿出红桃勾圈,
[01:59.05 → 01:59.75] 河牌成同花。
[01:59.75 → 02:02.41] 所以这手牌我的结论是AK不是不能跟,
[02:02.57 → 02:05.19] 但这手AK杂色时间点更偏向气牌,
[02:05.43 → 02:07.09] 因为抓炸不是看你的牌有多大,
[02:07.19 → 02:09.19] 而是看对手炸火够不够多,
[02:09.43 → 02:11.07] 以及你有没有阻挡他的价值牌,
[02:11.15 → 02:12.79] 所以这手牌你会扩还是扩,
[02:12.93 → 02:13.85] 评论区说说你的理由。